a a a 17.4.01.   DYNAMICS of CATASTROPHE

и         The analysis [ 13^A ] of publications in mass-media about teenagers-addicts quantity (by estimations of different experts) has revealed by 1999, that
• a portion of addicts in the general number of teenagers
  • becomes twice as much for three years
  • becomes triple as much for five years
  • for ten years has increased ten (10!) times
• having started to use a heavy drug, the addict (even an adult one) lives on the average no more than 7 years (from 3 up to 7 by different estimations)
• for this time he involves in drug using not less than 10 persons.
    At that, it is clear, the teenager involves those who is not more old persons than he is.
    Thus: the more a quantity of addicts is, the faster this quantity grows, and the average age of addicts decreases. From 1989 to 1999 their quantity increased annually not less, than for 25% of already reached level. It is similar to dynamics of chain reaction in physical (and chemical) processes.
    Here also, as well as in a nuclear bomb, there is a critical mass - demographic consequences of this epidemic can become irreversible, catastrophic.
    Such an annual accretion (25% of already reached level) gives growth in 2 times for 3 years, for 5 years – in 3 times, and for 10 years – in 10 times. But while from 1989 to 1999 the epidemic was poorly appreciable – creeping from 1% to 10%, so now it gallops. [It is characteristic not only for Russia. So, in Uzbekistan for last (2001) year the quantity of heroin addicts has increased in 4 times.] At preservation of this tendency, one ought to expect the full cover of youth by the epidemic by 2009.
    До 1999 года этот бурный рост (от 1% всех подростков в 1989 г. до 10%) не ощущался как катастрофа. Но если допустить, что он сохранится, то к 2009 году наркоманами станут все подростки; то к 2016 году их всех уже не будет в живых; молодёжь вымрет раньше стариков; возрастная структура населения исказится так, что оно потеряет способность воспроизводиться.
    But the tendency will soon change, growth rate begins to decrease. However one will not have to be pleased of it. It will mean merely that there is already nobody to tempt, that everyone who could be involved in narcotic dependence is already involved. The process of extinction of youth will become irreversible, and after that in the nearest 3÷7 years the population of the country will lose ability of regeneration
   Конечно, этого не произойдёт: изменится динамика распространения эпидемии. Но это не может ни радовать, ни хотя бы утешать. Коренное население будет заменятся/вытесняться пришлым/иммигрирующим (это в лучшем случае, при спокойном, без эксцессов развитии событий).         и